So by now you've read about my previous attempts at game development. For my latest journey into this wonderful world I am porting and fleshing out one of my most popular flash games. I intend the game to be a feature-full game, complete with game-extending features such as a level editor and community level marketplace for people to download new levels (for free). I personally hate microtransactions and free-to-play so it is my plan to charge for my game on all platforms.
So before even thinking about coding Factory I sat down with some awesome spreadsheets and put down some estimates on how much time I would need to put into the game (coding, marketing, thinking about it etc), how much I need to get some really nice graphics created for it, some music and some basic estimates for advertising and store fees etc. I added all that up and got a, not too big, figure which I would consider the break even point for Factory.
As I'm building the game to be cross platform from the start (using libGDX) I decided on a split between the platforms (PCs and Tablets) and then worked out the amount of copies that I need to sell in order to hit that break even.
The Numbers
That's right, to hit my target break even point, I only need to sell 2,500 copies of the game. I feel like this is a very reachable target. If even 0.15% of everyone who has played the flash version buys the game I will have reached that goal.
It's a modest target, but a realistic one for an indie developer working solo on their first commercial release.